Many Texas politicians are claiming the proposed 2026-27 Texas budget is conservative. But the facts tell a different story.
Examples of poor fiscal discipline in the proposed 2026-27 Texas budget include more than $50 billion of new state funds spending, using budget gimmicks to exceed the Texas Constitution’s Tax Spending Limit by $7.6 billion, and using only $6 billion of the surplus funds to provide property tax relief to overtaxed Texans.
One rationale some politicians use to claim the budget is conservative is that Texas’ Legislative Budget Board says that the increase in the proposed budget is under population times and inflation. This claim by the LBB is accomplished through sleight of hand, comparing estimated total spending for the current biennium to the initial appropriations for the 2026-27 biennium. Budget analyst Jeramy Kitchen explains some of the problems with the current budget from a conservative perspective. Economist Vance Ginn shows that the spending of state funds in the proposed 2026-27 budget will increase by 43% over the 2022-23 appropriations from 2021. During that period, population growth times inflation is about 27%. Increasing spending by 60% above population growth plus inflation is not conservative.
Also, many politicians also say the budget is conservative because they have had a $40 billion surplus and a $24 billion surplus in consecutive sessions. The surplus, while seemingly positive, reflects an alarming pattern of revenue growth outpacing actual spending needs. This “excessive silver and gold” (Deuteronomy 17:17) has led to poor fiscal discipline and restraint by Texas policymakers, resulting in rapidly increased spending rather than a reduced tax burden on our citizens. Additionally, while economic growth has provided the surpluses of recent years, the truth is that the Texas Legislature has spent almost every single dollar it can get its hands on. This session, for instance, new spending is about $50 billion. The Texas Comptroller calculates (p.16) that the Legislature is leaving only $2.9 billion unspent under the Texas Constitution’s Balanced Budget Amendment. In 2023, the Legislative Budget Board calculated that the Legislature left only $1.6 billion on the table under the Texas Constitution’s Tax Spending Limit.
Finally, some politicians also point to the $28 billion balance in Texas’ Rainy Day Fund, officially known as the Economic Stabilization Fund, as an example of fiscal conservatism. Yet the ESF has historically been used as a slush fund rather than as savings to meet emergency spending needs in case of an economic downturn; almost $18 billion has been spent out of the ESF. And legislation is being pushed this session that would take $5 billion from the ESF to provide more funds to support state spending. There is nothing conservative about putting taxpayer money into the bank until politicians can find a reason to spend them.
Most conservatives agree that government is already too big. Allowing the size and scope of government to increase every year means those fighting for liberty are losing every year. This fact alone is enough to challenge the idea that the proposed 2026-27 Texas Budget is conservative. Adding to that that the budget has been growing much faster than population growth plus inflation seals the deal. Neither the versions of the budget passed by the Texas Senate or Texas House earlier this session is conservative.
And neither will the version coming out of the conference committee within the next two weeks. Texas Republicans should vote against it.
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