7 Races To Watch On Election Day

February 25, 2022
TFR Staff
Fiscal Responsibility Index, Primary Elections 2022

After nearly two weeks of early voting, primary elections will be decided on Tuesday, March 1st in Texas. Those that receive over 50% of the vote will become their party’s nominee. Those that receive less than 50% will enter into runoff races with the 2nd place challengers.

In an extremely volatile year for conservatives, there are a number of important races that many taxpayers are keeping their eye on this primary season. Today we are going to highlight some of the most contested races that conservatives will be keeping a close eye on this coming Tuesday. Many of these races have multiple challengers but we will be highlighting what reported polling shows are the top 2 candidates in the race.

House District 60: Glenn Rogers (incumbent) VS Mike Olcott

Glenn Rogers is coming off of his first Legislative Session after campaigning as a conservative in 2020. State Rep. Glenn Rogers represents House District 60 which is a rural district west of Fort Worth encompassing 8 different counties. Rogers scored an abysmal 45 on the Fiscal Responsibility Index voting against taxpayers the vast majority of the time during the 2021 session.

Some of the votes he took that resulted in his failing grade were:

Rogers is being challenged by Mike Olcott who has repeatedly called out Rogers for his failure to stand for Republican legislative priorities and limited government principles. Recent polling is showing this one is close and TFR will be keeping our eyes on this one on election night.

House District 91: Stephanie Klick (incumbent) VS David Lowe

Stephanie Klick is on her fifth Legislative Session in the Texas House and represents House District 91 in the mid-cities of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. State Rep. Stephanie Klick is an example of an all-too-common trend in candidates that campaign as conservatives and stay in the legislature for an extended time. Her index scores have trended down over the course of her tenure. Though she was considered a Taxpayer Champion in her very first legislative session, she scored a 54 on the 2021 Fiscal Responsibility Index.

Here is what her career has looked like in the Fiscal Responsibility Index:

2013: A+

2015: B

2017: C+

2019: F

2021: F

As previously stated, this is a common trajectory for most state lawmakers as the Austin swamp slowly grabs ahold of them. Klick scored her lowest Index score to date in 2021 with a 54. Here are some of the votes that led to this failing score:

Klick is being challenged by quite a few primary opponents. David Lowe is the closest challenger to Klick according to the reported polling. He has accused her of holding up gender modification legislation that would have stopped child abuse in Texas, as well as a whole host of other issues that violate conservative principles. Will Klick be defeated or forced into a runoff? TFR will be watching on March 1st to see.

House District 62: Reggie Smith (incumbent) VS Shelly Luther

State Rep. Reggie Smith is coming off of his second Legislative Session in the Texas House representing House District 62 which is located north of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Smith entered the Texas House in 2019 where he replaced retiring State Rep. Larry Phillips. Smith has scored F ratings in both the 2019 and 2021 legislative sessions on the Fiscal Responsibility Index.

Some of the votes that contributed to the failing score in 2021 were:

Smith has been challenged by Shelly Luther who rose to notoriety with grassroots activists during her stand against Abbott’s unconstitutional lockdown orders. Luther was thrown in jail for defying Abbott’s orders and keeping her salon open in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Polling is showing these two candidates are neck and neck going into Election Day. TFR will be keeping a close eye on this race as well.

House District 14: John Raney (incumbent) VS John Slocum

State Rep. John Raney is coming off of his fifth Legislative Session in the Texas House representing House District 14 which encompasses the city of College Station. Raney has had a poor career in the Legislature based on his index scores. He has scored an “F” in every single legislative session during his time in elected office. This last legislative session being no different, he earned a 37 on the Fiscal Responsibility Index.

Some of the votes that led to the failing grade were:

Raney is currently being challenged by John Slocum who accuses Raney of not representing the values of District 14 nor of the Republican Party of Texas. Polling indicates that Raney’s prospects for reelection might be in trouble and that the result is going to be very close in this race. TFR will be watching what the people of House District 14 decide during this primary election on March 1st.

House District 18: Ernest Bailes (incumbent) VS Janis Holt

State Rep. Ernest Bailes is coming off his third Legislative Session in the Texas House representing House District 18 which is located in the North East greater Houston area. Bailes has scored failing grades in all three of his legislative session on the Fiscal Responsibility Index. His most recent score was a 39 in the 2021 legislative session.

Some of the votes that led to that score were:

Ernest Bailes has received numerous challengers in the Republican Primary for House District 18. Janis Holt, a former SREC member, seems to be in the lead against Bailes according to reported polling. With a number of challengers running against him in the primary, will Bailes be able to fend off a runoff election for his House seat? TFR will be paying attention on March 1st to find out.

House District 11: Travis Clardy (incumbent) VS Rachel Hale

State Rep. Travis Clardy is coming off his fifth Legislative Session in the Texas House representing House District 11 which encompasses the city of Nacogdoches. Clardy has scored an “F” rating for every single Legislative Session he has served. He scored a 38 in the most recent session in 2021.

Here are some of the votes that earned him a failing grade.

Clardy has received numerous challenges for the Republican nomination, all claiming to offer a more conservative option. Of all of the challengers Clardy is faced with, Rachel Hale is at the top of the latest polling and seems to be within reach of a victory or at least causing a runoff election. Will Clardy be forced into a runoff and held accountable for his abysmal record over the last 10 years? TFR will be watching on Election Night March 1st.

House District 12: Kyle Kacal (incumbent) VS Ben Bius

State Rep. Kyle Kacal is coming off his fifth Legislative Session in the Texas House representing House District 12 which encompasses parts of  the cities of Waco, Bryan, and College Station. Kyle has consistently been one of the worst scoring lawmakers in the Texas House, often scoring dead last among Republicans. This last legislative session was no exception, he came in dead last among his Republican colleagues with an embarrassing 28 for the 2021 session.

Here are some of the key votes resulting in his failing grade:

It is no wonder that conservatives and taxpayers in House District 12 are calling for Kacal’s replacement. Multiple challengers are vying to replace Kacal. The candidate reportedly polling closest is that of Ben Bius. Will Kacal be able to convince Republicans that he is a conservative even though he scored lowest among Republicans on the Fiscal Responsibility Index? TFR will have our eyes on his race on Election Day March 1st.

Election Day is Tuesday March 1st!

TFR wants to remind taxpayers that primary election day is Tuesday, March 1st. Texas taxpayers should be aware of the tremendous resource made available to them in the Fiscal Responsibility Index. TFR spent hundreds of hours analyzing votes that your lawmakers take and we have condensed them into an easily understandable metric that is available for anyone to use. We recommend you look at how fiscally responsible your lawmaker is before casting your ballot in the upcoming primary election.